by Linh Dang (Policy Intern at CELI)
“All Eyes on Belém”: such is the motto that climate policy observers are chanting as COP30 kicked off on November 10th, 2025, in the Brazilian city with the same name.
Political tensions at COP30 have exposed a deep, long-standing division between the responses of national governments, international civil society, and billion-dollar industries to the threats posed by climate change. Ahead of the summit, scientists and UN officers repeated their warning: the 1.5-degree increase threshold in global average temperature is at risk of being breached within just five years. Against this backdrop, an immediate analysis of the Kick Big Polluters Out (KBPO) coalition showed that a whopping 4% of delegates to COP30 represent the interests of fossil fuel companies, sometimes outnumbering official delegates from their own countries.[1] Outside meeting halls, thousands of indigenous people and activists were protesting to draw attention to the severe neglect of their voices and demand direct access to the negotiation.
One of the most politically sensitive agendas inside the conference rooms of COP30 was the shortcomings of updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs).[2] NDCs, national blueprints to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, are central to the Paris Agreement as proof of international efforts to mitigate the adverse effects of global warming. Reducing carbon emissions drastically is the only long-term measure to realize the goal of the Agreement. Nevertheless, the reality of implementation worldwide has revealed a staggering gap between commitments and actual progress. Out of 194 countries (plus the EU) that are parties to the Agreement, only 118 had submitted their 2035 NDCs before the opening of the COP30 conference, covering 72% of greenhouse gas emissions.[3] UNEP’s 2025 Emissions Gap Report indicates that if all NDCs were immediately and consistently implemented, the global average temperature would still increase by approximately 2.3–2.5°C at the end of the century.[4]
Figure 1: Map of countries that have submitted their updated NDCs prior to COP 30 (Source: Climate Watch)
Even in a best-case scenario, expected emissions in 2035 would decrease by only 12% to 15% compared to the 2019 level, far below the necessary 35% to 55% reduction required to align with the 2°C and 1.5°C thresholds. There is no immediate sign of a decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions; in fact, 57.7 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) have been produced in 2024 alone, which is up by 2.3% compared to 2023 statistics.[5] 2024 was also the hottest year on record as the global mean temperature shot to approximately 1.55°C compared to the pre-industrial era.[6] Extreme weather conditions are on track to become the “new normal”, threatening global ecosystems and the livelihoods of billions right before our eyes, within our lifetime.
Figure 2: Illustrative gap on GHG emissions under different scenarios and the emission gaps in 2035 (Source: UNEP)
According to Carbon Brief, fossil fuels remain the largest culprit, accounting for almost 70% of all emissions, while escalating deforestation in South America in recent years has significantly contributed to the increasing growth of global emissions.[7] The 2025 Production Gap by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics, and International Institute for Sustainable Development shows additional worrying trends in the generation of gas, coal, and oil in the upcoming decades. With projected coal output estimated to climb through 2035 and gas production in 2050, the world is trailing further off net-zero emission goals, as the gap between climate targets and the reality of minuscule global emissions cuts is widening.[8]
Figure 3: Total GHG emissions increase between 1990 and 2024, with breakdowns (Source: Carbon Brief)
This, however, does not mean the Paris Agreement is “dead,” nor that all countries are actively disregarding their political commitments to tackling climate change. The UN 2025 Synthesis Report of Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) highlights that almost all nations are realizing the Paris Agreement by adopting new institutional and legal frameworks to track actions and progress.[9] The 2025 Net Zero Stocktake report, which examines the spread of net-zero targets on both national and subnational levels and among the private sector, concludes that more governments and countries around the world are choosing to adopt emission cut standards despite political setbacks.[10] Outside the US, major developed economies such as the EU, the UK, and Japan have extensive coverage of net-zero targets at both national and subnational levels, with companies increasingly following suit. However, such commitments are not evenly adopted, and efforts dedicated to net-zero targets still fall critically short of meeting basic requirements across most sectors of entities.
As COP30 was approaching the end, more than 80 countries, the majority of which are from the Global South, teamed up to break ground on the stagnated talks around fossil fuels, calling for a complete “transition away” plan as a key objective of the conference. [11] Many of them intended to use the International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion on climate change, issued in July 2025, as diplomatic leverage in the conference hall. Because climate change is „an existential problem of planetary proportions that imperils all forms of life and the very health of our planet,”[12] they argue that new but empty commitments in the NDCs are insufficient to compel national governments to mitigate global warming. Concrete actions to implement policies are what truly matter. It is essential to note that although the fossil fuel transition was included in the official texts of COP28 in Dubai, it was omitted in the following year due to opposition from countries heavily dependent on oil, such as Saudi Arabia.[13] Much to the advocates’ dismay, but perhaps not surprisingly, the roadmap initiative did not make it to the final resolution of COP30; instead, such a plan will be crafted and negotiated outside the regular UN framework.[14]
The tension at COP30 concerning a pathway to net-zero emissions reflects deeper division on a global level, rather than merely a lack of technological capability, financial means, or inadequate policy design. For those already mourning the impacts of climate change on their lives, closing implementation gaps is not a purely policy issue but a moral and political imperative for all national governments. Their call is receiving considerable attention from the Global North, notably the EU, but this is far from enough, as billions of dollars continue to be invested in the growth of fossil fuels. Thus, the outcome of net-zero commitments at COP30 will rely heavily on the willingness of nations to go beyond mere rhetoric and narrow interests and fully embrace the call for climate action.
[1] Kick Big Polluters Out. “RELEASE: Fossil Fuel Lobbyists Flood COP30 Climate Talks in Brazil, with Largest Ever Attendance Share | Kick Big Polluters Out,” November 14, 2025. https://kickbigpollutersout.org/Release-Kick-Out-The-Suthatits-COP30.
[2] Harvey, Fiona. “Amid Squabbles, Bombast and Competing Interests, What Can Cop30 Achieve?” the Guardian. The Guardian, November 9, 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2025/nthatov/09/amid-squabbles-bombast-and-competing-interests-what-can-cop30-achieve.
[3] Climate Watch. “NDC Tracker.” Climatewatchdata.org, 2025. https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ndc-tracker.
[4] United Nations. “Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target – Continued Collective Inaction Puts Global Temperature Goal at Risk.” Unep.org, November 3, 2025. https://doi.org/978-92-807-4239-8.
[5] ibid.
[6] World Meteorological Organization. “WMO Confirms 2024 as Warmest Year on Record at about 1.55°c above Pre-Industrial Level.” World Meteorological Organization, January 10, 2025. https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2024-wthe International Institute for Sustainable Development shows additional worrying trends in the generation of gas, coal, and oil in the comingarmest-year-record-about-155degc-above-pre-industrial-level.
[7] Carbon Brief. “UNEP: New Country Climate Plans ‘Barely Move Needle’ on Expected Warming – Carbon Brief.” Carbon Brief, November 4, 2025. https://www.carbonbrief.org/unep-new-country-climate-plans-barely-move-needle-on-expected-warming/.
[8] Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics, and International Institute for Sustainable Development. “The Production Gap 2025 Report,” September 2025. https://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/PGR2025_full_web.pdf.
[9] “Biennial Transparency Reports and National Inventory Reports,” October 31, 2025. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2025_16.pdf.
[10] Net Zero Tracker. “Net Zero Stocktake 2025,” September 23, 2025. https://zerotracker.net/analysis/net-zero-stocktake-2025.
[11] Walling, Melina. “Host Brazil Pushes for Progress on Big Issues at COP30.” Canberratimes.com.au. The Canberra Times, November 18, 2025. https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/9114962/host-brazil-pushes-for-progress-on-big-issues-at-cop30/.
[12] Rodríguez Orúe, José Daniel. “World Court Rules Tackling Climate Crisis Is an International Legal Obligation.” Human Rights Watch, July 24, 2025. https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/07/24/world-court-rules-tackling-climate-crisis-is-an-international-legal-obligation.
[13] Harvey, Fiona, and Jonathan Watts. “More than 80 Countries at COP30 Join Call for Roadmap to Fossil Fuel Phase-Out.” the Guardian. The Guardian, November 18, 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/18/more-than-80-countries-join-call-at-cop30-for-roadmap-to-phasing-out-fossil-fuels.
[14] Carbon Brief. “COP30: Key Outcomes for Food, Forests, Land and Nature at the UN Climate Talks in Belém – Carbon Brief,” November 26, 2025. https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop30-key-outcomes-for-food-forests-land-and-nature-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-belem/.
