Disclaimer: We would like to emphasize that this is a summary of the Munich Security Report and Conference, and does not reflect any of our official stances.
The Munich Security Conference (MSC), a cornerstone of global geopolitical discourse, convened in February 2025 against a backdrop of tectonic shifts in the international order. This year’s proceedings were built on the Munich Security Report 2025[1], titled “Multipolarization”, which dissects the irreversible transition from U.S.-led unipolarity to a fragmented, contested system of competing power centers. The report and conference debates painted a stark picture: the world is grappling with the promises and perils of multipolarity, a reality marked by ideological fractures, strategic realignments, and escalating great-power competition.
The Munich Security Report 2025: Diagnosing a World in Flux
The report’s central thesis is that multipolarization—defined as the diffusion of power to a broader array of states and ideologies—has fundamentally reshaped global dynamics. While the post-Cold War era was defined by U.S. hegemony and liberal democratic norms, today’s landscape features a “contest of orders” between democratic and authoritarian models, with emerging powers like China, India, and Brazil asserting their influence. Crucially, the report warns that multipolarization risks devolving into “disorderly polarization”—a scenario where competing blocs prioritize unilateral gains over collective action, undermining efforts to address climate change, nuclear proliferation, and economic instability.
The report’s key findings include:
- Declining U.S. Leadership: The U.S. is retreating from its role as Europe’s security guarantor, with the Trump administration prioritizing transactional alliances and openly questioning NATO’s value. This shift has left European nations scrambling to reconcile their reliance on American military might with Washington’s demands for greater burden-sharing.
- Rise of the Global South: BRICS nations (minus Russia) and regional powers like Türkiye now wield unprecedented clout, challenging Western dominance in institutions like the UN and IMF. Public opinion in these countries overwhelmingly views multipolarity as a path to a “fairer, more just world,” contrasting with G7 nations’ skepticism.
- Ideological Fragmentation: Liberal democracy no longer monopolizes global governance. Authoritarian capitalism, as exemplified by China, and nationalist populism in the West have eroded consensus on human rights, free trade, and multilateralism.
Highlights from the Munich Security Conference: Cracks in the Transatlantic Armor
The conference underscored deepening rifts between the U.S. and Europe, exacerbated by the Trump administration’s transactional foreign policy. Five pivotal moments dominated discussions:
1. The Vance Doctrine: A Transatlantic Rupture: U.S. Vice President JD Vance delivered a polemical address[2] that stunned European delegates. Instead of reaffirming NATO solidarity, Vance accused the EU of “censorship,” “anti-democratic tendencies,” and failing to address public discontent over migration. His speech, which praised far-right European parties like Germany’s AfD[3], signaled a seismic shift: the U.S. now views Europe not as an ally but as a rival in need of “disciplining”. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen retorted that the EU would pursue “strategic autonomy” to reduce dependence on Washington.[4]
2. Ukraine: The Forgotten Front: A looming U.S.-Russia peace deal, negotiated without Ukrainian or European input, cast a pall over the conference. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that Washington and Moscow would hold talks in Saudi Arabia to end the war[5], demanding Kyiv abandon its NATO aspirations and accept Russian territorial gains. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, excluded from the negotiations, condemned the move and called for accelerated EU military aid.[6]
3. The Defense Spending Dilemma: With U.S. pressure mounting, European leaders clashed over NATO’s defense spending target. While Germany and France advocated raising the threshold to 3% of GDP, Eastern European states warned that austerity-weary publics would resist.[7] The report notes that Russia now spends over 6% of its GDP on defense—double NATO’s proposed benchmark—highlighting the alliance’s vulnerability.
4. China’s Vision: Multipolarity as Equality: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi framed multipolarity as a corrective to Western domination, advocating a world where “all countries, regardless of size, have equal rights and representation”.[8] This narrative resonated with Global South delegates, though European officials privately expressed skepticism about Beijing’s “win-win” rhetoric.
5. Trade Wars and Tariffs: President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on European steel and aluminum[9] overshadowed security talks, exposing raw economic tensions. The European Commission has warned of immediate retaliation if former U.S. President Donald Trump proceeds with „reciprocal” tariffs, which would raise duties on imports based on the tariff levels imposed by trade partners on U.S. goods. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that any unjustified tariffs targeting the EU would be met with proportional and decisive countermeasures.[10]
Regional Perspectives: Divergent Visions of Order
The United States: Retrenchment and Realpolitik
The Trump administration’s foreign policy, a new form of nationalism, prioritizes unilateralism and hard power. The report notes that U.S. officials now openly reject liberal internationalism, viewing institutions like the WTO and NATO as constraints on sovereignty. This approach has alienated traditional allies: an ECFR survey found that 51% of EU citizens now see the U.S. as a “necessary partner” rather than an ally.[11]
Europe: Between Autonomy and Irrelevance
Facing existential threats—from Russian aggression to U.S. disengagement—the EU is at a crossroads. French President Emmanuel Macron urged members to “muscle up” defense and tech sectors[12], warning that Europe risks becoming a “playground” for U.S.-China rivalry. However, internal divisions persist: Poland and the Baltics favor closer NATO ties, while Germany and France push for EU-led security frameworks.
China: Architect of a Post-Western World
Beijing has skillfully positioned itself as the standard-bearer of multipolarity, leveraging infrastructure projects and South-South cooperation to build alliances. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s emphasized “win-win cooperation” and reform of UN institutions[13] [14]—a subtle critique of U.S. “hegemonic practices”. Yet the report cautions that China’s vision remains opaque, blending free trade rhetoric with authoritarian governance.
The Global South: Hedging Their Bets
Nations like India, Brazil, and South Africa are exploiting great-power rivalry to secure concessions. India, for instance, has deepened ties with both the Quad (U.S., Japan, Australia) and BRICS, refusing to align with any bloc.[15] This “multi-alignment” strategy, while lucrative, complicates collective action on climate and security.
Challenges Ahead: Can Multipolarity Be Tamed?
The report concludes that unmanaged multipolarity could spawn a “geopolitical free-for-all”, with competing powers fueling proxy conflicts and weaponizing trade. To avert this, it calls for “depolarization”—reforms to make international institutions more inclusive and resilient. Key recommendations include:
- Revitalizing the UN Security Council to include India, Brazil, and African states.
- Creating new minilateral forums (e.g., climate coalitions) to bypass gridlocked bodies like the WTO.
- Establishing norms for emerging technologies, particularly AI, to prevent an arms race.
Conclusion: Navigating the New World Disorder
The Munich Security Report 2025 and conference debates reveal a world at an inflection point. Multipolarity, once a theoretical concept, is now a lived reality—one marked by opportunity and peril. For Europe, the path forward demands unity and strategic foresight: boosting defense capabilities, diversifying alliances, and reclaiming agency in a fractured order. For the U.S., the challenge lies in balancing national interests with the stabilizing role it long played. And for rising powers, the test will be whether they can transcend zero-sum competition and forge a system that benefits all—not just the few.
[1] https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2025/
[2] https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/18/vance-speech-munich-full-text-read-transcript-europe/
[3] https://apnews.com/article/germany-munich-vance-free-speech-election-33e720b820e61db9d5e478e63b4a4dc7
[4] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ac_25_526
[5] https://www.politico.eu/article/marco-rubio-arrives-riyadh-volodymyr-zelenskyy-uae-peace-negotiations-begin/
[6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg1508r8jro
[7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx242lw21jwo
[8] https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjbzhd/202502/t20250215_11555665.html
[9] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/10/trump-steel-aluminum-tariffs
[10] https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-warns-of-immediate-retaliation-against-trumps-reciprocal-tariffs/
[11] https://ecfr.eu/article/in-the-new-trumpian-era-liberal-democracies-must-hold-their-noses-and-engage-with-difficult-partners/
[12] https://www.ft.com/content/1ee43b51-9d3a-47d2-adf6-3315c38e1c38
[13] https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjbzhd/202502/t20250220_11559538.html
[14] https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/wjbzhd/202502/t20250219_11558897.html
[15] https://www.e-ir.info/2024/10/18/game-theory-and-non-alignment-indias-position-in-the-russia-ukraine-war/
